Celebrate the national day and welcome the Mid Autumn Festival?

      Time: 2020-10-01 06:34:44

      As one of the four traditional festivals in China, Mid Autumn Festival is a time when the sea rises and the moon rises and the ends of the earth are in full swing. With the beginning of corn harvest activities in Henan, Anhui and other places, the autumn compound fertilizer market has officially sounded the final clarion call. After the sinking of goods in the grass-roots market, there is little demand for replenishment. It is expected that after the National Day holiday, the autumn market in some areas has basically ended, and the next winter storage will gradually surface.

      In fact, today's winter storage market is already in full swing, and the key areas are still the focus of people's attention. Take the northeast region as an example, the seemingly huge market demand has already been divided into several parts, and the compound fertilizer enterprises participating in it have made great efforts, naturally forming the current situation. The prices are not only low but also chaotic, and even a few enterprises' early quotations are almost close Close to the cost line, although the new price is sporadically released after the suspension of collection, the so-called increase is also relatively limited. At present, the price of winter storage compound fertilizer in the Northeast market is still at a low level. Many voices doubt whether the price of winter storage compound fertilizer has been greatly promoted this year. Xiaobian thinks that the price may be low, but it will not go too far.

      First of all, good raw materials are more than bad for the time being. The price of enterprises' winter storage will be calculated according to their own raw materials and other costs, and no one will buy or sell at a loss. Therefore, the aftermarket of raw materials is an important factor in determining the price of winter storage. The recent urea market is full of twists and turns, and domestic urea factories seem to be waiting for the life-saving straw of printing. It can be seen that relying on the domestic urea market is very difficult to pass the price reduction storm, but after several rounds of market, the actual price does not fluctuate much, and the situation of big rise and fall is very difficult to happen; the price of Monoammonium is not hot from beginning to end, so it is not easy to reduce the price, and there is no reason to increase the price The purchase of raw materials for winter storage may push up the price of Monoammonium; the potassium chloride market is the hottest, and the big port traders are forced to increase, and the increase completely exceeds the expectation. After the price is settled, the risk of price reduction in the short term is almost nonexistent.

      Second, demand seems to be decreasing, but it does exist. Generally speaking, the winter storage fertilizer in northern China is mainly aimed at the market demand in the spring of next year, and the overall consumption is relatively considerable. However, in recent years, the heat of winter storage has gradually subsided, the demand seems to be decreasing, and the expectation will decline. Then this year's winter storage market is still worth looking forward to. The first reason is that the grain price is generally on the high side, which is the main reason why the enthusiasm of the downstream market has decreased in the past The reason is that the income of grass-roots agriculture is low. This year, the difference is that grain prices are high, especially for corn, rice and other crops. Although local natural disasters have led to a decline in output, the overall fertilizer demand has not been affected too much. The second reason is that the credit situation in the terminal market has improved significantly compared with the past. Before, dealers had the intention to store in winter, but they had no choice but to have insufficient funds. The autumn grain has not changed and they are in debt After the current credit situation is reduced, the dealers will more or less reserve funds for winter storage to facilitate the timely preparation of goods.

      Finally, price war is not the only way out. Winter reserves compete with each other and lower their prices. It seems that it is not the grassroots but the enterprises themselves that are hurt in the end. The price is too low, the cost pressure is increasing, the price is slightly higher, and the downstream does not buy it. It is in a dilemma. The introduction of winter reserves price has become the biggest difficulty for enterprises. Price war is not the only way to win. On the one hand, blindly following the principle of low price gives small factories more opportunities to supply goods at low price, with only lower price but no lowest price, and the market share is unconsciously divided by it. The second reason is that low price is full of low price, and the market atmosphere is getting stronger and weaker. Unconsciously, it creates an illusion that the downstream will reduce the price in the future, which will make the terminal market prepare goods Confidence does not increase but decreases.

      To sum up, the prospect of winter storage market is indeed worth pondering, but don't be too pessimistic. After entering October, the quotation of enterprises will become more and more clear, and its level may not be too far lower than that of the end of the market in autumn.