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Winter storage of compound fertilizer: is it profit or loss to buy and sell one hammer?

      Time: September 18, 2020 17:18:04

      Recently, the market of compound fertilizer tends to be stable as a whole, and the autumn market begins to close down. The long-awaited small upsurge of replenishment has not been fulfilled. Although most enterprises have made a lot of orders in the early stage, there are few new orders. With the gradual start of terminal purchase and sales, there will be demand for replenishment in the short term, and the specific space may be relatively limited. In other words, the autumn wheat fertilizer market will be in line with the demand However, it will continue the embarrassing situation at the end of the first two seasons.

      After the autumn market passed, Dongchu naturally became the focus of attention. However, at present, the market of Dongchu is calm and makes people shudder. Just at the end of July and early August, some enterprises took the lead in testing the water, and the price introduced is also incredible. After collecting money for a period of time, the low-end quotation gradually disappeared. At this stage, the market is mainly interest bearing, and most enterprises say that the price of Dongchu is difficult to be determined I'm sure it won't be heard until after October at the earliest. However, before that, many dealers have seized the opportunity of low price and reserved more than half of the total compound fertilizer goods. After a hammer is knocked down, they wait for the future development. No one can say whether they will make a profit or lose. However, judging from the existing favorable and unfavorable factors, the mainstream price of winter storage this year may be weak.

      First of all, there is no chance of a big rise in raw materials. The cost of raw materials is really related to the pricing level of compound fertilizer. The main reason for the relatively stable price during the autumn Wheat Fertilizer period is that the fluctuation of raw material market is limited, and most of them are strong. After the successive bidding in India, the price of urea has increased a lot, but the price of compound fertilizer has not followed the ups and downs. The enterprises hold the psychology of stabilizing the price and dare not adjust it easily. For the future of raw materials, the market voice is more cautious and optimistic, urea market changes frequently, the influence of gambling up and down is actually the same; monoammonium market is stable, so it is difficult for enterprises to find the opportunity of price increase; potassium chloride price is crying up, but the actual support is very little.

      Second, the demand for winter storage is not as good as before. No matter how low the price is, it is useless to have no demand. Compared with the past, the demand for winter storage is less and less in recent years. The first reason is that the risk coefficient increases. Due to the long time span and frequent changes in the market, dealers often have to face the situation of throwing stones at their feet. Not only do they not make money, it is common to lose money, and their confidence is greatly reduced. The second reason is that the price of compound fertilizer is higher Transparent, the profit compression is very small, especially for conventional products. If we blindly follow the rules and do not find another way, the significance of winter storage is difficult to highlight. In order to avoid risks to the greatest extent, dealers have to be cautious.

      In the end, the beginning implies the end. The difference between this year's winter storage market and the past is that the market has been in a mess before it started, so we have to mention the Northeast market, which is also one of the most representative regions. The early collection price is very low, basically close to the cost line, which leads to a sharp decline in the competitiveness of the supply of goods in other provinces. That is to say, we have to stick to the low price, and the freight cost in some regions is also a big obstacle The price is bound to be higher than the local supply. On the one hand, the emergence of low-cost goods is the performance of enterprises sticking to their own positions; on the other hand, it is the result of the vicious circle of the market, the supply is completely greater than the demand. In addition to the appropriate marketing means, the best way is to increase the chips and use the price to fight the market, which also provides the best hint for the future market.

      To sum up, the high and low price of winter storage compound fertilizer is related to the enterprise, but it can not completely control the downstream dealers. As long as they have confidence in the future market, the dealers will make corresponding reserves no matter how high the price is. On the contrary, they will come out at a low price at the beginning, so that the dealers will inadvertently be short of the future market and become timid. Therefore, low price is not necessarily the best way to win the winter storage market Whether to make a profit or a loss or to leave time to test.